Here are a couple unorganized thoughts. First, of the listed candidates, Rehberg is the strongest challenger. My caution with Racicot is he has been away from the scene for 10 years. People and politics change so I think his numbers are a little inflated. By contrast, Rehberg has been in the spotlight for 10 years and people know what he has done, both good and bad, and those opinions are accurately reflected in the numbers. Obviously, Daines is still a relative unknown and as happened with Tester in his run against Burns, if you win the primary in a contested race the support will come so it is meaningless to look at the head to head now.
Next up, I would take all this with a grain of salt. 2010 was a historic environment for conservatives. Coupled with a Presidential election the electorate will be a bit more balanced in turnout two years from now.
A related counter-point is that PPP typically has a D lean. So there is that.
Finally, with Tester polling below 50% against all opponents, the NRSC is going to put this race in their crosshairs regardless of who wins the Republican primary. The money from the NRSC and national groups will ensure Tester’s numbers stay low (the same thing happened in 2005 with Burns) and give R’s a great shot at picking this one up.
One thing I am sure of is that Montana is going to be flooded with political dollars in 2012. A contested Senate race, open Governor’s race, possible open House race (if Rehberg challenges Tester), and a host of down ballot statewide races (AG, SoS, Auditor). Oh and a Presidential election year. Should be a fun cycle.
As an aside my favorite headline from anywhere goes to Swing State Project;
“Tester still popular, But Rehberg Leads By 2″
Right, so ignore that Tester polls sub-50% against all challengers and the fact he failed to crack 50% of the vote 4 years ago, he is still popular. Trust us. Sure guys, sure.
Tester only won in a perfect storm for Republicans. I don’t think that he has a chance in 2012 unless the magic political fairy comes down and makes Obama and his policies popular. And even that won’t be enough.
So, who are you picking to replace Denny if he goes for the Senate? My vote is GGuy.
My only reservation with Tester in 2012 is the same concern as Flint’s, the media. The morning after election day Tester got a story for reading to an elementary class for crying out loud…
If Denny goes for the Senate I don’t have a clue who I would support. I could get behind Dean Folkvord running for a public office, not necessarily the House. Or GGuy, one of those two.
I know Denny’s tired of the “constant” campaign mode of being a Congressman; running every two years you never get done campaigning. But I would think there would be a bit of communication between GOP candidates concerning the upcoming U.S. Senate race. It would seem logical (to me anyway) that Daines would have talked with Denny about the race, asking if Denny had any intention of running against Tester. And armed with that answer, make a decision to enter the race.
From a stratergeric point of view, it makes no sense for Denny to take a run at Tester in ’12. Tester may not be polling all that high, but – as noted above – he has the media totally behind him, so it’s no sure thing for a take-away. I’d put my money on Denny going after Max in ’14. The odds are much better.