So yeah, sorry about the lack of posting.  The schedule of the games makes it tough for my simple mind to focus on anything other than the best sporting event in the world.

Consider this a notice that for the next couple weeks, at least until the knockout stages, posting will be very light.

In the meantime, an excellent write-up from RCP on the lay of the land for November’s elections.

Using a top-notch Republican and a top-notch Democratic polling firm, NPR polled 60 districts represented by Democrats that it considered the most competitive. It isn’t a simple generic ballot – it named the actual candidates where incumbents were running. It further broke these down into two “tiers:” Tier I (the 30 Democratic districts it considered “most competitive”) and Tier II, (the next most competitive 30 Democratic districts). NPR also polled the ten districts represented by Republicans that it considered the most competitive….

Against this landscape, it should not be surprising that NPR finds a Democratic debacle in the making in these districts. Voters prefer, on average, a Republican to the Democrat by 9 points in “Tier I” districts and by a 2 point margin in the “Tier II” districts. Among the most enthusiastic voters, it is even more ominous for Democrats: Republicans lead by 14 points in the 60 districts represented by Democrats. In the districts held by Republicans, by contrast, the Republican lead by 16 points over all, and by 21 points among the most enthusiastic voters

To put it bluntly, the numbers for Republicans in 2006 were nowhere near this bad and look what happened.  As noted further in the article, perhaps most telling is the poll numbers for races outside the top sixty competitive seats.  Herseth-Sandlin down in South Dakota did not make this cut, yet she is trailing her opponent by 12 points.

One other tidbit to consider, NPR asked voters in the competitive districts do you approve or disapprove of the way your specific Representative is handling his/her job.  Republicans had an average approval/disapproval of +22 (54%A/32%D).  Democrats only had an average of +3 in Tier 1 races (41%A,38%D) and +1 in Tier 2 races (40%A, 39%D).  Further, when you look at the strongly approve versus strongly disapprove you get a Republican balance of +10 (28%A, 18%D) while Tier 1 Dems are -9 (16%A, 25%D).  Tier 2 Dems sit at -2 (21%A, 23%D).

Again, those numbers are atrocious for endangered Democrats.

I see only two ways Democrats can keep control of the House.  Pray that the Republicans fail to coalesce around contested primary winners in a large percentage of districts (unlikely).  Or play a destructive scorched earth campaign.  Democratic politicians are not going to see their approval ratings go up between now and November, their only hope lies in bringing Republican approvals down a good 10-15 points on these ballots.  Call me jaded, but I have a feeling this is what we will see.

Anyway, at the very least it will be a great year for prairie state Republicans.  We are looking at getting Republicans into federal office for the first time in 20 years in North Dakota (two even as Rich is polling ahead of Pomeroy), and Thune’s operation should be able to help maintain the down ballot lead on Herseth-Sandlin.

Enough of politics, the Indomitable Lions are about to kick off against Denmark.